NOK
Nokia Oyj
$10.12
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.2% above fair value
You pay
$10.12
Bear
$7.34
Fair
$9.18
Bull
$11.02
Bear
$7.34
-27.4%
$0.31 × 12x P/E
Fair
$9.18
-9.3%
$0.31 × 15x P/E
Bull
$11.02
+8.9%
$0.31 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.50 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.18 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 149%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 130% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.50 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1438 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples