NOK
Nokia Oyj
$15.47
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 93.4% above fair value
You pay
$15.47
Bear
$6.41
Fair
$8.00
Bull
$9.59
Bear
$6.41
-58.6%
$0.32 × 12x P/E
Fair
$8.00
-48.3%
$0.32 × 15x P/E
Bull
$9.59
-38.0%
$0.32 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
48.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.00 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 149%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 128% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1607 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples