NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$26.36
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 82.4% above fair value
You pay
$26.36
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$14.45
Bull
$38.24
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $252M × 8x
Fair
$14.45
-45.2%
FCF $359M × 11x
Bull
$38.24
+45.1%
FCF $467M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$29.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $14.45 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $38.24 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($21.89) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $29.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential