NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$20.11
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 124.8% above fair value
You pay
$20.11
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$8.94
Bull
$49.61
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $177M × 8x
Fair
$8.94
-55.5%
FCF $253M × 11x
Bull
$49.61
+146.7%
FCF $329M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.94 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($21.89) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential