NMRK
Newmark Group, Inc.
$14.42
Stable Earnings Power
75%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.0% above fair value
You pay
$14.42
Bear
$9.69
Fair
$12.12
Bull
$14.54
Bear
$9.69
-32.8%
$0.68 × 14x P/E
Fair
$12.12
-16.0%
$0.68 × 18x P/E
Bull
$14.54
+0.8%
$0.68 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.8x
0.68$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$20.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.68, the base-case value is $12.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $20.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples