NMRK
Newmark Group, Inc.
$14.60
Stable Earnings Power
75%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.2% above fair value
You pay
$14.60
Bear
$11.54
Fair
$14.43
Bull
$17.32
Bear
$11.54
-20.9%
$0.72 × 14x P/E
Fair
$14.43
-1.2%
$0.72 × 18x P/E
Bull
$17.32
+18.6%
$0.72 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples