NKE
NIKE, Inc.
$42.64
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.1% below fair value
You pay
$42.64
Bear
$45.03
Fair
$51.46
Bull
$57.90
Bear
$45.03
+5.6%
$3.23 × 14x P/E
Fair
$51.46
+20.7%
$3.23 × 16x P/E
Bull
$57.90
+35.8%
$3.23 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.06 from 71 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.46 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 54%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $115.32 (above our primary estimate by 123%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples