NKE
NIKE, Inc.
$36.36
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.6% below fair value
You pay
$36.36
Bear
$45.22
Fair
$51.68
Bull
$58.14
Bear
$45.22
+24.4%
$3.23 × 14x P/E
Fair
$51.68
+42.1%
$3.23 × 16x P/E
Bull
$58.14
+59.9%
$3.23 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.23$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (71 analysts)
$48.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.23, the base-case value is $51.68 per share. DDM cross-check: $91.36.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 54%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $91.36 (above our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples