NKE
NIKE, Inc.
$45.20
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.6% below fair value
You pay
$45.20
Bear
$51.10
Fair
$58.41
Bull
$65.71
Bear
$51.10
+13.1%
$3.56 × 14x P/E
Fair
$58.41
+29.2%
$3.56 × 16x P/E
Bull
$65.71
+45.4%
$3.56 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $61.09 from 71 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.41 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 65%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $115.32 (above our primary estimate by 102%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples