NJR
New Jersey Resources Corporation
$53.16
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.2% below fair value
You pay
$53.16
Bear
$46.62
Fair
$53.28
Bull
$59.94
Bear
$46.62
-12.3%
$3.33 × 14x P/E
Fair
$53.28
+0.2%
$3.33 × 16x P/E
Bull
$59.94
+12.8%
$3.33 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.33$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$61.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.33, the base-case value is $53.28 per share. DDM cross-check: $81.03.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $81.03 (above our primary estimate by 52%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples