NJR
New Jersey Resources Corporation
$59.86
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.9% above fair value
You pay
$59.86
Bear
$48.11
Fair
$54.98
Bull
$61.85
Bear
$48.11
-19.6%
$3.34 × 14x P/E
Fair
$54.98
-8.1%
$3.34 × 16x P/E
Bull
$61.85
+3.3%
$3.34 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.67 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $54.98 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $81.03 (above our primary estimate by 52%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples