NICE
NICE Ltd.
$115.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.7% below fair value
You pay
$115.34
Bear
$228.61
Fair
$381.09
Bull
$560.54
Bear
$228.61
+98.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$381.09
+230.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$560.54
+386.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
11.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.8%
vs 17.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$124.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
207%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $381.09 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $124.20 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 207% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions