NICE
NICE Ltd.
$94.46
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.5% below fair value
You pay
$94.46
Bear
$221.91
Fair
$370.35
Bull
$545.05
Bear
$221.91
+134.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$370.35
+292.1%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$545.05
+477.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
7.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $126.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $370.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $126.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 259% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions