NICE
NICE Ltd.
$95.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.8% below fair value
You pay
$95.01
Bear
$188.70
Fair
$314.57
Bull
$462.69
Bear
$188.70
+98.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$314.57
+231.1%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$462.69
+387.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.1%
vs 17.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $314.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $115.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 231% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions