NIC
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.
$141.69
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.8% below fair value
You pay
$141.69
Bear
$120.65
Fair
$178.92
Bull
$213.88
Bear
$120.65
-14.8%
ROTCE 12.9% → 2.16x TBV
Fair
$178.92
+26.3%
ROTCE 17.2% → 3.20x TBV
Bull
$213.88
+51.0%
ROTCE 19.8% → 3.82x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (17.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.55x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $182.67 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $178.92 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly