NIC
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.
$164.41
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.8% above fair value
You pay
$164.41
Bear
$97.43
Fair
$144.49
Bull
$167.05
Bear
$97.43
-40.7%
ROTCE 12.9% → 2.33x TBV
Fair
$144.49
-12.1%
ROTCE 17.2% → 3.46x TBV
Bull
$167.05
+1.6%
ROTCE 19.8% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
17.2%
7.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (17.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.94x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$194.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
With ROTCE of 17.2% vs. 7.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.46x on $41.76 tangible book, implying $144.49 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $194.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly