NHI
National Health Investors, Inc.
$72.03
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.7% below fair value
You pay
$72.03
Bear
$59.31
Fair
$74.77
Bull
$90.23
Bear
$59.31
-17.7%
$4.66 FFO × 14x
Fair
$74.77
+3.8%
$4.66 FFO × 18x
Bull
$90.23
+25.3%
$4.66 FFO × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.66) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$81.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Summary
At $4.66 FFO/share with a 18x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $74.77 per share. Dividend yield: 5.1%. DDM cross-check: $53.39.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $53.39 (29% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify