NHI
National Health Investors, Inc.
$75.33
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.7% below fair value
You pay
$75.33
Bear
$60.77
Fair
$76.61
Bull
$92.46
Bear
$60.77
-19.3%
$4.66 FFO × 14x
Fair
$76.61
+1.7%
$4.66 FFO × 18x
Bull
$92.46
+22.7%
$4.66 FFO × 22x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($4.66) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.40 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.61 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $53.10 (29% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify