NHC
National HealthCare Corporation
$231.39
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.4% above fair value
You pay
$231.39
Bear
$97.23
Fair
$121.53
Bull
$145.84
Bear
$97.23
-58.0%
$7.67 × 13x P/E
Fair
$121.53
-47.5%
$7.67 × 16x P/E
Bull
$145.84
-37.0%
$7.67 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.8x
7.67$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.67, the base-case value is $121.53 per share. DDM cross-check: $56.13.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $56.13 (below our primary estimate by 54%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples