NHC
National HealthCare Corporation
$228.16
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.5% above fair value
You pay
$228.16
Bear
$108.35
Fair
$135.44
Bull
$162.52
Bear
$108.35
-52.5%
$8.59 × 13x P/E
Fair
$135.44
-40.6%
$8.59 × 16x P/E
Bull
$162.52
-28.8%
$8.59 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.6x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.59, the base-case value is $135.44 per share. DDM cross-check: $58.38.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $58.38 (below our primary estimate by 57%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples