NGVT Ingevity Corporation
$66.67
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 1.3% below fair value

You pay $66.67
Bear $54.03
Fair $67.53
Bull $81.04
Bear $54.03 -19.0% $4.35 × 12x P/E
Fair $67.53 +1.3% $4.35 × 15x P/E
Bull $81.04 +21.6% $4.35 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.53 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples