NGVT
Ingevity Corporation
$72.94
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.0% above fair value
You pay
$72.94
Bear
$54.03
Fair
$67.53
Bull
$81.04
Bear
$54.03
-25.9%
$4.35 × 12x P/E
Fair
$67.53
-7.4%
$4.35 × 15x P/E
Bull
$81.04
+11.1%
$4.35 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.53 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples