NGVT
Ingevity Corporation
$70.54
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 240.3% above fair value
You pay
$70.54
Bear
$16.58
Fair
$20.73
Bull
$24.88
Bear
$16.58
-76.5%
$1.38 × 12x P/E
Fair
$20.73
-70.6%
$1.38 × 15x P/E
Bull
$24.88
-64.7%
$1.38 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.38$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
51.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$71.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
71%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.38, the base-case value is $20.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $71.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples