NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
$31.29
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.3% above fair value
You pay
$31.29
Bear
$23.63
Fair
$28.36
Bull
$33.09
Bear
$23.63
-24.5%
$2.04 × 10x P/E
Fair
$28.36
-9.4%
$2.04 × 12x P/E
Bull
$33.09
+5.7%
$2.04 × 14x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples