NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
$30.26
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.1% above fair value
You pay
$30.26
Bear
$20.00
Fair
$24.00
Bull
$28.00
Bear
$20.00
-33.9%
$2.00 × 10x P/E
Fair
$24.00
-20.7%
$2.00 × 12x P/E
Bull
$28.00
-7.5%
$2.00 × 14x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
12.0x
2.0$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.00, the base-case value is $24.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples