NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
$75.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.6% above fair value
You pay
$75.31
Bear
$43.81
Fair
$72.71
Bull
$106.25
Bear
$43.81
-41.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$72.71
-3.5%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$106.25
+41.1%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
32.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.4%
vs 16.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (99 analysts)
$92.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $72.71 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions