NFG
National Fuel Gas Company
$81.00
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 272.3% above fair value
You pay
$81.00
Bear
$3.23
Fair
$21.76
Bull
$44.12
Bear
$3.23
-96.0%
FCF $258M × 12x
Fair
$21.76
-73.1%
FCF $304M × 16x
Bull
$44.12
-45.5%
FCF $349M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$88.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $21.76 per share. Range: $3.23 (bear) to $44.12 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($29.35) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -96%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $88.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential