NFBK
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
$15.31
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 54.3% above fair value
You pay
$15.31
Bear
$6.95
Fair
$9.92
Bull
$12.90
Bear
$6.95
-54.6%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$9.92
-35.2%
ROTCE 0.1% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$12.90
-15.8%
ROTCE 0.1% → 0.30x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
0.1%
8.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (0.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.93x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$14.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
With ROTCE of 0.1% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $16.52 tangible book, implying $9.92 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.1%) is below the minimum investors require (8.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly