NFBK
Northfield Bancorp, Inc.
$14.17
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 30.8% above fair value
You pay
$14.17
Bear
$7.59
Fair
$10.84
Bull
$14.09
Bear
$7.59
-46.4%
ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$10.84
-23.5%
ROTCE 0.1% → 0.30x TBV
Bull
$14.09
-0.6%
ROTCE 0.1% → 0.30x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (0.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.86x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.1%) is below the minimum investors require (8.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly