NEWT
NewtekOne, Inc.
$13.38
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.7% below fair value
You pay
$13.38
Bear
$18.62
Fair
$26.61
Bull
$34.59
Bear
$18.62
+39.2%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.01x TBV
Fair
$26.61
+98.9%
ROTCE 15.8% → 1.53x TBV
Bull
$34.59
+158.5%
ROTCE 18.2% → 1.83x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (11.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.01x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.61 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly