NEWT NewtekOne, Inc.
$12.22
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 58.9% below fair value

You pay $12.22
Bear $20.83
Fair $29.76
Bull $38.69
Bear $20.83 +70.5% ROTCE 11.9% → 1.01x TBV
Fair $29.76 +143.5% ROTCE 15.8% → 1.52x TBV
Bull $38.69 +216.6% ROTCE 18.2% → 1.83x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.8%
11.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (11.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.92x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (9 analysts) $14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 113%

Summary

With ROTCE of 15.8% vs. 11.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.52x on $13.26 tangible book, implying $29.76 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly