NEWT
NewtekOne, Inc.
$11.40
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.7% below fair value
You pay
$11.40
Bear
$20.83
Fair
$29.76
Bull
$38.69
Bear
$20.83
+82.7%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.00x TBV
Fair
$29.76
+161.1%
ROTCE 15.8% → 1.50x TBV
Bull
$38.69
+239.4%
ROTCE 18.2% → 1.80x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
15.8%
11.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.8%) vs. cost of equity (11.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.86x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
113%
Summary
With ROTCE of 15.8% vs. 11.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.50x on $13.26 tangible book, implying $29.76 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly