NESR
National Energy Services Reunited Corp.
$34.49
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 101.8% above fair value
You pay
$35.79
Bear
$9.37
Fair
$17.74
Bull
$28.24
Bear
$9.37
-73.8%
FCF $94M × 10x
Fair
$17.74
-50.4%
FCF $121M × 13x
Bull
$28.24
-21.1%
FCF $148M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.33 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $17.74 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -80%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.33 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential