NEOG
Neogen Corporation
$10.32
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.2% above fair value
You pay
$10.32
Bear
$7.23
Fair
$9.04
Bull
$10.85
Bear
$7.23
-29.9%
$0.57 × 12x P/E
Fair
$9.04
-12.4%
$0.57 × 15x P/E
Bull
$10.85
+5.1%
$0.57 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.04 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples