NEE
NextEra Energy, Inc.
$79.52
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.0% above fair value
You pay
$79.52
Bear
$47.97
Fair
$54.83
Bull
$61.68
Bear
$47.97
-39.7%
$3.29 × 15x P/E
Fair
$54.83
-31.1%
$3.29 × 17x P/E
Bull
$61.68
-22.4%
$3.29 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.7x
3.29$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$92.91
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.29, the base-case value is $54.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $9946.85.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $9946.85 (above our primary estimate by 18043%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $92.91 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples