NEE
NextEra Energy, Inc.
$89.35
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.4% above fair value
You pay
$89.35
Bear
$62.36
Fair
$71.27
Bull
$80.19
Bear
$62.36
-30.2%
$3.50 × 15x P/E
Fair
$71.27
-20.2%
$3.50 × 17x P/E
Bull
$80.19
-10.3%
$3.50 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $101.60 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.27 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $31061.48 (above our primary estimate by 53202%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $101.60 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples