NDSN
Nordson Corporation
$289.90
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 56.9% above fair value
You pay
$289.90
Bear
$147.82
Fair
$184.77
Bull
$221.73
Bear
$147.82
-49.0%
$9.50 × 12x P/E
Fair
$184.77
-36.3%
$9.50 × 15x P/E
Bull
$221.73
-23.5%
$9.50 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $311.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $184.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $311.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples