NDSN Nordson Corporation
$324.59
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 154.3% above fair value

You pay $324.59
Bear $102.12
Fair $127.65
Bull $153.18
Bear $102.12 -68.5% $8.51 × 12x P/E
Fair $127.65 -60.7% $8.51 × 15x P/E
Bull $153.18 -52.8% $8.51 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
8.51$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 38.1x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (21 analysts) $360.20
Divergence from AlphaVal 65%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.51, the base-case value is $127.65 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $360.20 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples