NDSN
Nordson Corporation
$328.04
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 157.0% above fair value
You pay
$328.04
Bear
$102.12
Fair
$127.65
Bull
$153.18
Bear
$102.12
-68.9%
$8.51 × 12x P/E
Fair
$127.65
-61.1%
$8.51 × 15x P/E
Bull
$153.18
-53.3%
$8.51 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
8.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
38.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$360.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.51, the base-case value is $127.65 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $360.20 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples