NDSN Nordson Corporation
$286.60
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 52.6% above fair value

You pay $286.60
Bear $150.28
Fair $187.84
Bull $225.42
Bear $150.28 -47.6% $9.50 × 12x P/E
Fair $187.84 -34.5% $9.50 × 15x P/E
Bull $225.42 -21.3% $9.50 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $323.80 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $187.84 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $323.80 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples