NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
$91.01
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 45.9% above fair value
You pay
$91.01
Bear
$40.92
Fair
$62.39
Bull
$75.27
Bear
$40.92
-55.0%
ROTCE 11.0% → 1.21x TBV
Fair
$62.39
-31.5%
ROTCE 14.6% → 1.85x TBV
Bull
$75.27
-17.3%
ROTCE 16.8% → 2.23x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.21x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $114.60 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.39 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $114.60 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly