NCNO
nCino, Inc.
$19.67
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 180.9% above fair value
You pay
$19.67
Bear
$4.53
Fair
$7.00
Bull
$9.51
Bear
$4.53
-77.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.00
-64.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$9.51
-51.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
57.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.1%
vs 11.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$23.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.00 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1426% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.43 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions