NCNO
nCino, Inc.
$16.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 52.7% above fair value
You pay
$16.07
Bear
$6.24
Fair
$10.53
Bull
$14.86
Bear
$6.24
-61.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$10.53
-34.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$14.86
-7.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
71.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.50 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.53 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1426% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $29.50 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions