NCNO
nCino, Inc.
$16.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 103.0% above fair value
You pay
$16.98
Bear
$4.98
Fair
$8.36
Bull
$11.81
Bear
$4.98
-70.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$8.36
-50.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$11.81
-30.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
75.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.7%
vs 11.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.36 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 1426% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions