NCMI
National CineMedia, Inc.
$2.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 68.8% below fair value
You pay
$2.44
Bear
$6.49
Fair
$7.83
Bull
$9.04
Bear
$6.49
+166.1%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$7.83
+220.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$9.04
+270.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
4.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-13.5%
vs 7.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$4.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
69%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $4.63 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 69% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions