NCMI
National CineMedia, Inc.
$1.89
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.8% below fair value
You pay
$1.89
Bear
$6.32
Fair
$7.49
Bull
$8.54
Bear
$6.32
+234.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$7.49
+296.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$8.54
+351.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
2.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-19.9%
vs 6.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$4.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $4.63 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions