NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
$16.30
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 66.0% below fair value
You pay
$16.30
Bear
$38.33
Fair
$47.92
Bull
$57.50
Bear
$38.33
+135.2%
$2.63 × 18x P/E
Fair
$47.92
+194.0%
$2.63 × 22x P/E
Bull
$57.50
+252.7%
$2.63 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.85 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $47.92 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 192%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.85 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 170% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples