NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
$20.03
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.1% below fair value
You pay
$20.03
Bear
$38.21
Fair
$47.76
Bull
$57.31
Bear
$38.21
+90.8%
$2.63 × 18x P/E
Fair
$47.76
+138.5%
$2.63 × 22x P/E
Bull
$57.31
+186.1%
$2.63 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.33 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $47.76 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 192%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.33 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 177% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples