NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
$15.57
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.1% below fair value
You pay
$15.57
Bear
$16.20
Fair
$20.25
Bull
$24.30
Bear
$16.20
+4.0%
$0.90 × 18x P/E
Fair
$20.25
+30.1%
$0.90 × 22x P/E
Bull
$24.30
+56.1%
$0.90 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
0.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$20.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.90, the base-case value is $20.25 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples