NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
$136.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 57.6% below fair value
You pay
$136.98
Bear
$170.36
Fair
$323.30
Bull
$525.72
Bear
$170.36
+24.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$323.30
+136.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$525.72
+283.8%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
22.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.2%
vs 22.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$204.18
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $323.30 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 46% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $204.18 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions