NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
$156.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.8% below fair value
You pay
$156.70
Bear
$149.71
Fair
$284.09
Bull
$461.98
Bear
$149.71
-4.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$284.09
+81.3%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$461.98
+194.8%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $184.38 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $284.09 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 46% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $184.38 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 77% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions