NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
$155.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.4% below fair value
You pay
$155.64
Bear
$172.23
Fair
$326.83
Bull
$531.47
Bear
$172.23
+10.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$326.83
+110.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$531.47
+241.5%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.9%
vs 22.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$203.11
Divergence from AlphaVal
61%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $326.83 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 46% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $203.11 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 61% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions