NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation
$43.16
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.2% below fair value
You pay
$43.16
Bear
$32.56
Fair
$46.52
Bull
$60.48
Bear
$32.56
-24.6%
ROTCE 8.0% → 0.88x TBV
Fair
$46.52
+7.8%
ROTCE 10.6% → 1.47x TBV
Bull
$60.48
+40.1%
ROTCE 12.2% → 1.82x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (10.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.59x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.52 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $77.01 (71% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly