NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation
$38.88
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.9% below fair value
You pay
$38.88
Bear
$31.60
Fair
$45.15
Bull
$58.70
Bear
$31.60
-18.7%
ROTCE 8.0% → 0.82x TBV
Fair
$45.15
+16.1%
ROTCE 10.6% → 1.37x TBV
Bull
$58.70
+51.0%
ROTCE 12.2% → 1.69x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
10.6%
8.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (10.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.67x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
With ROTCE of 10.6% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.37x on $23.27 tangible book, implying $45.15 per share. DDM cross-check: $69.26.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $69.26 (53% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly