NATL
NCR Atleos Corporation
$44.69
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.5% below fair value
You pay
$44.69
Bear
$48.93
Fair
$58.45
Bull
$67.96
Bear
$48.93
+9.5%
$2.72 × 18x P/E
Fair
$58.45
+30.8%
$2.72 × 22x P/E
Bull
$67.96
+52.1%
$2.72 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.72, the base-case value is $58.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $66.74.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples