NATL
NCR Atleos Corporation
$46.99
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.1% above fair value
You pay
$46.99
Bear
$38.52
Fair
$46.01
Bull
$53.50
Bear
$38.52
-18.0%
$2.14 × 18x P/E
Fair
$46.01
-2.1%
$2.14 × 22x P/E
Bull
$53.50
+13.9%
$2.14 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
2.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.0x
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.14, the base-case value is $46.01 per share. DDM cross-check: $66.74.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $66.74 (above our primary estimate by 45%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples