NATL NCR Atleos Corporation
$47.43
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 18.8% below fair value

You pay $47.43
Bear $48.93
Fair $58.45
Bull $67.96
Bear $48.93 +3.2% $2.72 × 18x P/E
Fair $58.45 +23.2% $2.72 × 22x P/E
Bull $67.96 +43.3% $2.72 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.72, the base-case value is $58.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $66.74.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples