NAT Nordic American Tankers Limited
$6.37
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 59.9% above fair value

You pay $6.37
Bear $3.18
Fair $3.98
Bull $4.78
Bear $3.18 -50.0% $0.28 × 12x P/E
Fair $3.98 -37.5% $0.28 × 15x P/E
Bull $4.78 -24.9% $0.28 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.0x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.50 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.98 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 376%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 1069% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples