NAT
Nordic American Tankers Limited
$5.40
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.7% above fair value
You pay
$5.40
Bear
$3.18
Fair
$3.98
Bull
$4.78
Bear
$3.18
-41.1%
$0.28 × 12x P/E
Fair
$3.98
-26.3%
$0.28 × 15x P/E
Bull
$4.78
-11.5%
$0.28 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.50 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.98 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 376%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 810% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples