NAT
Nordic American Tankers Limited
$7.47
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 301.8% above fair value
You pay
$7.47
Bear
$1.49
Fair
$1.86
Bull
$2.23
Bear
$1.49
-80.1%
$0.12 × 12x P/E
Fair
$1.86
-75.1%
$0.12 × 15x P/E
Bull
$2.23
-70.1%
$0.12 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.12$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
60.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$3.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.12, the base-case value is $1.86 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 114%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 1362% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $3.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples