NAGE
Niagen Bioscience Inc
$3.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.4% below fair value
You pay
$3.10
Bear
$3.19
Fair
$5.20
Bull
$7.74
Bear
$3.19
+3.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$5.20
+67.7%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$7.74
+149.7%
27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
21.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.8%
vs 20.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$10.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $5.20 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions