NAGE
Niagen Bioscience Inc
$3.49
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.2% below fair value
You pay
$3.49
Bear
$3.84
Fair
$6.26
Bull
$9.32
Bear
$3.84
+10.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$6.26
+79.4%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$9.32
+167.0%
27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
25.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.0%
vs 20.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.26 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 35% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions