NAGE
Niagen Bioscience Inc
$3.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 57.8% below fair value
You pay
$3.66
Bear
$4.94
Fair
$8.67
Bull
$13.52
Bear
$4.94
+35.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$8.67
+136.8%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$13.52
+269.5%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
17.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.67 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions