MZTI
The Marzetti Company
$114.84
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.2% below fair value
You pay
$114.84
Bear
$97.72
Fair
$118.66
Bull
$139.60
Bear
$97.72
-14.9%
$6.98 × 14x P/E
Fair
$118.66
+3.3%
$6.98 × 17x P/E
Bull
$139.60
+21.6%
$6.98 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
6.98$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$135.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
12%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.98, the base-case value is $118.66 per share. DDM cross-check: $121.73.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples