MZTI
The Marzetti Company
$115.00
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.0% above fair value
You pay
$115.00
Bear
$91.04
Fair
$110.55
Bull
$130.06
Bear
$91.04
-20.8%
$6.07 × 14x P/E
Fair
$110.55
-3.9%
$6.07 × 17x P/E
Bull
$130.06
+13.1%
$6.07 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples