MYE
Myers Industries, Inc.
$31.30
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 238.3% above fair value
You pay
$31.30
Bear
$6.82
Fair
$9.25
Bull
$11.69
Bear
$6.82
-78.2%
$0.97 × 7x
Fair
$9.25
-70.4%
$0.97 × 10x
Bull
$11.69
-62.7%
$0.97 × 12x
Adjust Assumptions
9.5x
0.97$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.97)
Implied Market Multiple
32.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.97 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $9.25 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing