MYE
Myers Industries, Inc.
$31.11
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 203.1% above fair value
You pay
$31.11
Bear
$6.32
Fair
$10.26
Bull
$14.22
Bear
$6.32
-79.7%
$0.97 × 7x + net cash
Fair
$10.26
-67.0%
$0.97 × 10x + net cash
Bull
$14.22
-54.3%
$0.97 × 12x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.97)
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.26 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing