MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
$523.21
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.6% above fair value
You pay
$523.21
Bear
$395.89
Fair
$452.45
Bull
$509.01
Bear
$395.89
-24.3%
$24.10 × 16x P/E
Fair
$452.45
-13.5%
$24.10 × 19x P/E
Bull
$509.01
-2.7%
$24.10 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.8x
24.1$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$636.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $24.10, the base-case value is $452.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $636.80 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples