MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
$590.23
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 21.8% above fair value
You pay
$590.23
Bear
$423.93
Fair
$484.48
Bull
$545.04
Bear
$423.93
-28.2%
$24.68 × 16x P/E
Fair
$484.48
-17.9%
$24.68 × 19x P/E
Bull
$545.04
-7.7%
$24.68 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $568.86 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $484.48 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples