MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
$542.74
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.1% above fair value
You pay
$542.74
Bear
$412.62
Fair
$471.56
Bull
$530.50
Bear
$412.62
-24.0%
$24.68 × 16x P/E
Fair
$471.56
-13.1%
$24.68 × 19x P/E
Bull
$530.50
-2.3%
$24.68 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $504.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $471.56 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples