MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
$878.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.2% below fair value
You pay
$878.84
Bear
$1,379.63
Fair
$2,454.90
Bull
$3,796.57
Bear
$1,379.63
+57.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$2,454.90
+179.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3,796.57
+332.0%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
13.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.5%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (70 analysts)
$1588.85
Divergence from AlphaVal
55%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2454.90 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1588.85 (from 70 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions