MTX
Minerals Technologies Inc.
$63.60
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 47.5% above fair value
You pay
$63.60
Bear
$33.50
Fair
$43.10
Bull
$51.45
Bear
$33.50
-47.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$43.10
-32.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$51.45
-19.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
20.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.0%
vs 5.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$37.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $43.10 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions