MTX
Minerals Technologies Inc.
$76.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 161.0% above fair value
You pay
$76.79
Bear
$20.18
Fair
$29.42
Bull
$37.45
Bear
$20.18
-73.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$29.42
-61.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$37.45
-51.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
35.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $68.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions