MTX
Minerals Technologies Inc.
$74.60
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 128.7% above fair value
You pay
$74.60
Bear
$22.37
Fair
$32.62
Bull
$41.52
Bear
$22.37
-70.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$32.62
-56.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$41.52
-44.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
34.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.4%
vs 5.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $84.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.62 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $84.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions