MTW
The Manitowoc Company, Inc.
$23.38
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 211.6% above fair value
You pay
$23.38
Bear
$6.00
Fair
$7.50
Bull
$9.00
Bear
$6.00
-74.3%
$0.47 × 13x P/E
Fair
$7.50
-67.9%
$0.47 × 16x P/E
Bull
$9.00
-61.5%
$0.47 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.9x
0.47$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
49.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.47, the base-case value is $7.50 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 136%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 160% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples