MTW
The Manitowoc Company, Inc.
$12.78
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.5% below fair value
You pay
$12.78
Bear
$12.39
Fair
$15.50
Bull
$18.59
Bear
$12.39
-3.0%
$1.09 × 13x P/E
Fair
$15.50
+21.3%
$1.09 × 16x P/E
Bull
$18.59
+45.5%
$1.09 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.50 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 445%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 160% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 73% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples