MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
$385.98
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 99.6% above fair value
You pay
$385.98
Bear
$82.83
Fair
$193.40
Bull
$275.57
Bear
$82.83
-78.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$193.40
-49.9%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$275.57
-28.6%
35% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (30% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
227.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $352.56 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $193.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $352.56 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions