MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
$301.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 193.9% above fair value
You pay
$301.65
Bear
$44.47
Fair
$102.65
Bull
$145.88
Bear
$44.47
-85.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$102.65
-66.0%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$145.88
-51.6%
35% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (30% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
244.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
45.5%
vs 30.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$415.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 30% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $102.65 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $415.71 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions