MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
$266.99
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 57.1% above fair value
You pay
$266.99
Bear
$73.80
Fair
$169.99
Bull
$241.47
Bear
$73.80
-72.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$169.99
-36.3%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$241.47
-9.6%
35% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (30% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
227.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
44.4%
vs 30.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $386.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $169.99 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $386.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions