MTRN
Materion Corporation
$246.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 500.3% above fair value
You pay
$246.75
Bear
$8.09
Fair
$41.10
Bull
$72.46
Bear
$8.09
-96.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$41.10
-83.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$72.46
-70.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
136.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
34.8%
vs 8.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $161.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $161.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions