MTRN
Materion Corporation
$221.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 531.7% above fair value
You pay
$221.06
Bear
$20.64
Fair
$35.00
Bull
$48.62
Bear
$20.64
-90.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$35.00
-84.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$48.62
-78.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
77.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.0%
vs 8.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$314.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
89%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $35.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $314.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions