MTLS
Materialise N.V.
$5.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.2% below fair value
You pay
$5.90
Bear
$4.98
Fair
$6.10
Bull
$7.19
Bear
$4.98
-15.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$6.10
+3.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$7.19
+21.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
25.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1628 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions