MTLS
Materialise N.V.
$8.36
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.7% above fair value
You pay
$8.36
Bear
$5.27
Fair
$6.54
Bull
$7.78
Bear
$5.27
-36.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$6.54
-21.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$7.78
-7.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
24.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.8%
vs 9.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$10.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.54 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1233 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions