MTDR
Matador Resources Company
$60.09
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 575.7% above fair value
You pay
$60.09
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$8.89
Bull
$33.06
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $291M × 8x
Fair
$8.89
-85.2%
FCF $415M × 11x
Bull
$33.06
-45.0%
FCF $540M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$70.73
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $8.89 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $33.06 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($28.02) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $70.73 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential