MTDR
Matador Resources Company
$53.59
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 157.0% above fair value
You pay
$53.59
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$20.85
Bull
$7.49
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $169M × 8x
Fair
$20.85
-61.1%
FCF $242M × 11x
Bull
$7.49
-86.0%
FCF $314M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
41.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.50 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.85 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($27.93) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.50 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential