MTD Mettler-Toledo International Inc.
$1,345.26
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 112.7% above fair value

You pay $1,345.26
Bear $506.04
Fair $632.55
Bull $759.06
Bear $506.04 -62.4% $42.17 × 12x P/E
Fair $632.55 -53.0% $42.17 × 15x P/E
Bull $759.06 -43.6% $42.17 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
42.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 31.9x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (19 analysts) $1466.29
Divergence from AlphaVal 57%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $42.17, the base-case value is $632.55 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1466.29 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples