MTD
Mettler-Toledo International Inc.
$1,345.26
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 112.7% above fair value
You pay
$1,345.26
Bear
$506.04
Fair
$632.55
Bull
$759.06
Bear
$506.04
-62.4%
$42.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$632.55
-53.0%
$42.17 × 15x P/E
Bull
$759.06
-43.6%
$42.17 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
42.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$1466.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $42.17, the base-case value is $632.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1466.29 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples