MTCH
Match Group, Inc.
$42.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.9% below fair value
You pay
$42.95
Bear
$39.83
Fair
$52.31
Bull
$63.74
Bear
$39.83
-7.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$52.31
+21.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$63.74
+48.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.3%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$42.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $52.31 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions