MTCH
Match Group, Inc.
$35.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
75%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.1% below fair value
You pay
$35.80
Bear
$31.75
Fair
$41.70
Bull
$50.72
Bear
$31.75
-11.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$41.70
+16.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$50.72
+41.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
13.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.13 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.70 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions