MTAL
Metals Acquisition Corp. II
$10.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 86.1% below fair value
You pay
$10.17
Bear
$39.29
Fair
$73.21
Bull
$114.32
Bear
$39.29
+286.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$73.21
+619.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$114.32
+1024.1%
24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
8.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-2.9%
vs 18.5% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $73.21 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions