MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
$130.32
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 79.4% above fair value
You pay
$130.32
Bear
$58.13
Fair
$72.66
Bull
$87.19
Bear
$58.13
-55.4%
$4.84 × 12x P/E
Fair
$72.66
-44.2%
$4.84 × 15x P/E
Bull
$87.19
-33.1%
$4.84 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
4.84$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$145.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.84, the base-case value is $72.66 per share. DDM cross-check: $71.88.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 36%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 97% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $145.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples