MSI
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
$468.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.9% above fair value
You pay
$468.05
Bear
$226.60
Fair
$347.07
Bull
$471.76
Bear
$226.60
-51.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$347.07
-25.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$471.76
+0.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
32.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.6%
vs 12.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$525.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $347.07 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $525.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions