MSI
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
$467.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 34.4% above fair value
You pay
$467.75
Bear
$227.29
Fair
$348.13
Bull
$473.19
Bear
$227.29
-51.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$348.13
-25.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$473.19
+1.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
32.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.5%
vs 12.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$525.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $348.13 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $525.86 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions