MSGE
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.
$80.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 170.5% above fair value
You pay
$80.44
Bear
$20.45
Fair
$29.74
Bull
$38.78
Bear
$20.45
-74.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$29.74
-63.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$38.78
-51.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
49.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.0%
vs 9.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$92.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 48% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $92.33 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions