MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
$516.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 35.8% above fair value
You pay
$516.17
Bear
$235.64
Fair
$379.98
Bull
$543.01
Bear
$235.64
-54.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$379.98
-26.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$543.01
+5.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
44.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.6%
vs 15.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (82 analysts)
$556.42
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $379.98 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $556.42 (from 82 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions