MSCI
MSCI Inc.
$621.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.6% above fair value
You pay
$621.77
Bear
$341.26
Fair
$577.83
Bull
$839.45
Bear
$341.26
-45.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$577.83
-7.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$839.45
+35.0%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
34.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
16.4%
vs 14.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $697.88 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $577.83 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions