MSCI
MSCI Inc.
$588.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.8% above fair value
You pay
$588.55
Bear
$330.33
Fair
$545.74
Bull
$779.38
Bear
$330.33
-43.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$545.74
-7.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$779.38
+32.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
33.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $674.33 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $545.74 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $674.33 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions