MSCI
MSCI Inc.
$569.08
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.1% below fair value
You pay
$569.08
Bear
$357.60
Fair
$593.29
Bull
$851.87
Bear
$357.60
-37.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$593.29
+4.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$851.87
+49.7%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
28.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.9%
vs 14.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$701.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $593.29 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions