MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated
$170.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 1.6% below fair value
You pay
$170.95
Bear
$122.97
Fair
$173.67
Bull
$224.29
Bear
$122.97
-28.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$173.67
+1.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$224.29
+31.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
23.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $222.33 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $173.67 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $222.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions