MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated
$171.13
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.7% above fair value
You pay
$171.13
Bear
$119.05
Fair
$168.32
Bull
$217.55
Bear
$119.05
-30.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$168.32
-1.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$217.55
+27.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.9%
vs 10.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $222.33 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $168.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $222.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions