MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated
$179.73
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.2% above fair value
You pay
$179.73
Bear
$121.53
Fair
$175.85
Bull
$231.14
Bear
$121.53
-32.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$175.85
-2.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$231.14
+28.6%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
26.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.5%
vs 11.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $222.33 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $175.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $222.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions