MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated
$180.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.5% above fair value
You pay
$180.06
Bear
$124.20
Fair
$179.25
Bull
$235.29
Bear
$124.20
-31.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$179.25
-0.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$235.29
+30.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
24.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.5%
vs 11.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$210.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $179.25 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions