MRX
Marex Group Limited
$65.56
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.3% above fair value
Bear
$56.85
-13.3%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$56.85
-13.3%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$56.85
-13.3%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.08x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $77.75 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.85 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $77.75 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly