MRX
Marex Group Limited
$73.00
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.4% above fair value
Bear
$51.63
-29.3%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$51.63
-29.3%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$51.63
-29.3%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
33.2%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.66x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$81.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
With ROTCE of 33.2% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $12.91 tangible book, implying $51.63 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $81.83 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly