MRX
Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares
$53.20
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.7% above fair value
Bear
$52.80
-0.7%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$52.80
-0.7%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$52.80
-0.7%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
4.12x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.80 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly