MRVL
Marvell Technology, Inc.
$223.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 282.4% above fair value
You pay
$223.55
Bear
$28.96
Fair
$58.46
Bull
$97.43
Bear
$28.96
-87.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$58.46
-73.9%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$97.43
-56.4%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
175.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
40.7%
vs 22.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (73 analysts)
$271.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $58.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $271.15 (from 73 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions