MRVL
Marvell Technology, Inc.
$188.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 57.6% above fair value
You pay
$188.68
Bear
$58.83
Fair
$119.70
Bull
$200.16
Bear
$58.83
-68.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$119.70
-36.6%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$200.16
+6.1%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
175.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
40.7%
vs 22.5% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $251.21 from 73 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.70 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $251.21 (from 73 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions