MRVL
Marvell Technology, Inc.
$244.76
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 318.7% above fair value
You pay
$244.76
Bear
$28.96
Fair
$58.46
Bull
$97.43
Bear
$28.96
-88.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$58.46
-76.1%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$97.43
-60.2%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
191.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
41.9%
vs 22.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (74 analysts)
$327.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $58.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $327.86 (from 74 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions