MRVL
Marvell Technology, Inc.
$196.33
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 132.0% above fair value
You pay
$196.33
Bear
$41.91
Fair
$84.63
Bull
$141.07
Bear
$41.91
-78.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$84.63
-56.9%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$141.07
-28.1%
29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
182.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.30 from 72 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $84.63 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $150.30 (from 72 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions