MRTN
Marten Transport, Ltd.
$11.81
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 149.7% above fair value
You pay
$11.81
Bear
$3.44
Fair
$4.73
Bull
$6.02
Bear
$3.44
-70.9%
$0.86 × 4x
Fair
$4.73
-59.9%
$0.86 × 6x
Bull
$6.02
-49.0%
$0.86 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
0.86$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.86)
Implied Market Multiple
13.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$12.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.86 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $4.73 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.3x.
Warnings
This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing