MRTN
Marten Transport, Ltd.
$16.69
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 91.7% above fair value
You pay
$16.69
Bear
$6.57
Fair
$8.71
Bull
$10.84
Bear
$6.57
-60.6%
$0.86 × 4x + net cash
Fair
$8.71
-47.8%
$0.86 × 6x + net cash
Bull
$10.84
-35.0%
$0.86 × 7x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.86)
Implied Market Multiple
19.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.71 per share.
Warnings
This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.
Wall Street's average price target is $22.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing